Tablet computers will eventually replace laptops, according to nearly half of Americans polled earlier this month.

But don’t panic yet …

Of course, “eventually” is a very long time, and the recent rollout of Amazon’s Kindle Fire and anticipation over the Apple iPad 3 might have survey takers overreaching a bit.

While the Poll Position phone survey of 1,155 registered voters found great enthusiasm for tablet computers, with 46% saying tablets would surpass laptops eventually, 35% said tablets will not replace laptops and 19% had no opinion.

Among younger Americans (18-29 age group), 49% said tablets will not replace the PC and 37% said they will. A higher percentage of men (53%) than women (39%) foresee tablets overtaking laptops.

The tablet market was hot last year and is expected to remain so this year. IDC recently said it expected 2011 worldwide tablet shipments to total more than 63 million units, with Apple selling about 6 in 10 of those. Recent Canalys figures show a total PC market of 356 million units in 2011, minus tablets.

While those numbers don’t point overwhelmingly in one direction or the other, it is food for thought. Plus, the prevalence of tablets (and mobile devices in general) has crept into quite a few 2012 predictions in the past few months, including this excerpt from Boston.com’s Global Business Hub:

Mobile and Tablet: Leapfrogging

In 2010, for the first time in the history of computing, tablet sales have surpassed desktop sales. Yet many companies continue to channel most of their investment into their web presence, continuing to think of their mobile and tablet use as an adjunct nicety. Expect that to change in 2012. The savviest of marketers will also know how to appeal to the untethered consumer. They will harness geo-localization technologies (Foursquare-style check-ins and soon even walk-bys) for customized offers, better use QR codes to gather data and link to in-store experiences. And outside of the US, mobile is increasingly playing a larger role as is mobile use is often stronger, with wireless technology often superior to older line-bound networks.

If you’re considering creating a mobile app or a mobile website (and you probably should at least consider it), don’t forget that mobile versions shouldn’t just be carbon copies of your desktop-based site/software. People are constantly on-the-go and increasingly expect their apps to know where they are and adjust accordingly. If your site/software is something that can be adapted to fit constantly changing environments and you want to jump into the local-mobile offers game, make sure you do it correctly with in-the-wild localization testing. Here’s why (again from Boston.com):

Internationalization and Localization: Relevance Rules

While in theory the internet has no borders, few companies know how to effectively garner and cultivate an international audience effectively. Expect that to change in 2012. Data shows that brands with localized web and social media presence enjoy far greater engagement and brand buzz. But the distinction between internationalization and localization is an important one. Successful localization efforts go far beyond language translation alone. They create and encourage content that is relevant to the local audience. Expect companies to pay more attention to the other 88% of internet users that don’t live in the US.

So with that in mind, here are 12 questions whose  answers will shape the app universe (and thus, the testing landscape) in 2012:

1. Will we finally find a better way to vet apps than app store ratings?
2. Is Flash really and truly dead in the mobile app space?
3. What’s the next big wave in the ever-growing sea of SoLoMo?
4. Web-enabled TVs:  here or hype?
5. Will Android keep winning such rapid market share from iOS?
6. Is this the year the mobile wallet hits the U.S. mainstream?
7. How will netizens find what they need — search or social?
8. Can developers finally forget about IE6?  How about IE7?
9. Will Amazon’s app store plans fly or flop?
10. Where do tablets go from here?
11. Which direction will the IPO and VC markets turn?
12. After watching Uber battle taxis, and AirBnB take on hotels, which mature industry will be next to get disrupted in a big way (fwiw, my money is on medical and education, though the latter may take longer)?

So what’s your take — which of these issues will have the biggest impact on devs, testers and users in 2012?  Put on your fortune telling hat and share your prediction to that question in the comments below.

And happy 2012 to us all. Let’s enjoy this next (last?) year in the apps universe!

Unfortunately, my four-year-old has already implored me to take down the skeleton and spiders hanging in the doorway because they’re going to scare away Santa.  So, rather than arguing the salient fact that Santa shimmies down the chimney versus ringing the doorbell, I’ve officially started morphing decor from the marvelous macabre to merry old Saint Nick.  Kids: 1. Mom: 0.

Nonetheless, the fact hasn’t escaped me that we’re two weeks away from Cyber Monday (November 28th), an occasion that online retailers have been planning for months.  Since summer, global brands and independent e-tailers have been testing and re-testing their mobile apps and web sites for functionality, usability, localization glitches and possible bottlenecks in site performance that could jeopardize their revenue potential.

Moreover, the ante has been upped now that the iPad and other tablets have entered the scene.  Online retailers that spent the last few years optimizing their mobile apps and porting them to additional platforms like Android, are now going through the process from scratch with tablets.  Not only are the specs non- standardized, varying significantly by manufacturer, device and network performance like smartphones.

But user behavior on iPads and tablets is very different than on smartphones.  Tablets require a completely different design strategy based on the high-resolution screen, the added real-estate that allows for more merchandising (but tempts marketers into overly cluttered UX’s and drop-down menus), and even the finger-swipe ability and need for larger buttons.  In the end, it equates to more need than ever for sophisticated testing, tweaking (in design and functionality), and testing again.

As Jason Ankeny wrote in FierceMobileContent this week, “The holidays are coming, and this year, there are essentially two types of people: Those adding tablet devices to the top of their wish list, and those who already own tablets–and plan to use them to complete their seasonal shopping tasks.”

So how many mobile—tablet and smartphone–consumers are we talking about?  Well, according to Prosper Mobile Insights’ Mobile Survey published last month, here’s a data slice suggesting what tech executives, brand managers, and QA teams should expect for the 2011 holiday season:

Somewhat/Very Likely to Purchase Products on Mobile Device (Mobile Holiday Shoppers)

• Thanksgiving Day: 30.1%
• Black Friday: 66.9%
• Saturday after Thanksgiving: 58.6%
• Sunday after Thanksgiving: 48.6%
• Cyber Monday: 63.5%

Mobile isn’t a “nice to have” to bring home independent and global brands’ year-end sales.  It’s a gamechanger.

Today, Alex Schmelkin wrote in “Best Practices for Tablet Commerce” on Business2Community’s site: “Ultimately, with the explosive forecast being what it is for tablets, retailers will need to continue improving their t-commerce UX optimization. Online merchants must recognize the looming changes in consumer habits and prepare for a tablet based future or proceed with negligible modifications at their peril.”

So the question for every online retailer is, Are you ready?

Start with focusing on a particular market segment, says ReadWriteWeb. RWW published a very interesting post today to give mobile developers some insight into what they should be thinking about before building their killer app.

The main gist of it was to focus more on whom you’re developing for vs. the functionality of the app. I’m guessing this is the part where testers all over the world want to beat someone up right about now. Of course testers want developers to develop with functionality in mind; however, I do think the article brings up a good point.

Balancing the technical side (functionality) with the business side (target audience) will get you one step closer to having your new app “heard” and raking in the cash.

According to ReadWriteWeb (and Pew’s & Flurry’s survey results),

“The smartphone sweet spot, and by extrapolation, the target for mobile developers looking to make money, is the adult market of college educated, urban and suburban males (Pew survey). Games, social networking and news are the top apps that people spend time with. A study by analytics firm Flurry shows that males 25-34 spend the most time with freemium games and make the most transactions.”

Personally, I couldn’t agree more. It seems like my husband (who is in the target market) gets me hooked on a new iPhone game every week! The latest one was Disney’s “Where’s My Water” – a physics-based puzzler which challenges you to go through a series of mazes and obstacles (e.g. algae, toxic ooze and traps!) and guide the flowing water down to Swampy the alligator (pictured above). And 2am last night says I’m addicted.

Bottom line. “With all the analytics tools available to developers these days, there is no reason that apps and products cannot be built to take advantage of this type of data and create and app that will do well in a particular market segment.” (RWW)

What do you think? Is it better to focus on an app’s functionality or the market segment in order to really be heard? Or is it a balance of both?

Previously, the issue was whether I should I invest in iOS and start the conversion over from a lifetime on Windows.  After all, my dad was a 30-year IBM vet, which put food on the table and paid my tuition.  I grew up seeing mammoth mainframes, punchcards…glowing green DOS.  No Apples of any color in our Big Blue household.

But on this occasion, it wasn’t a question of brand loyalty. It was the obvious: the loss of Steve Jobs.

I still find myself processing his passing both emotionally and practically. I remember how the AP alert popped up on my phone and it literally felt like someone had punched me in the stomach.  I admired him for living authentically, taking billion dollar gambles on ideas, picking himself up after billion dollar failures, and holding steadfast (stubborn?) to his vision.

I’m convinced his near-religious zeal over every minutiae of product design stemmed from the same social ethic that led to Apple’s creation:  to make computers so easy and user-friendly that everyone could benefit from computing’s powerful potential.  Not just the technical, highly-educated and elite. Computers for Everyman.

Attention to detail.  Risk-taking. Singular focus. These are among the core values of the Apple brand. As I considered buying the iPad, I wondered:  Are these values sufficiently infused in Tim Cook and the company DNA to continue on without Steve?  Or will Apple employees slowly lose direction like followers of the North Star left without guide over too many cloudy nights?

The only constant in life is change, it’s said.  And over the next 3-5 years, it’s going to be interesting to watch every stakeholder in the Apple ecosystem silently cast their vote about the saliency of the brand, and collectively determine the company’s future.

Consumers will judge with their pocketbooks whether iDevices remain revolutionary.  Enterprises will decide to invest in the iPad…or not.  Talent will vote with their pen, signing job offers from Apple…or not.  App developers will watch marketshare and and competing platforms’ ability to drive revenue with app discovery and merchandising technologies. Suppliers will re-evaluate their strategic alliances and preferred partners.

And investors? Competitors like Google?  Watching all of these subtle harbingers like hawks.

Acutely aware of his fragile mortality, Steve Jobs must surely have accelerated his succession planning and spent hours meditating on how best to expand a corporate culture of entrepreneurialism.  I can only begin to imagine the burden of responsibility he (like all CEOs) must have felt to maintain job security for the nearly 50,000 Apple employees worldwide.  And not the least, the utter determination he must have felt privately to ensure that his vision…his passion… continued beyond his lifetime.  This was a man who worked on Apple until his last day.

In a 2008 interview with CNN Money, Jobs confirmed:  “I mean, some people say, ‘Oh, God, if [Jobs] got run over by a bus, Apple would be in trouble.’ And, you know, I think it wouldn’t be a party, but there are really capable people at Apple. My job is to make the whole executive team good enough to be successors, so that’s what I try to do.”

Time will tell.

What do you predict for Apple in a post-Steve Jobs world?

CTO Tom Conrad said that he could see the company developing a hybrid HTML5-native app. “It’s the best way to get the best of both worlds with the technology that’s available right now,” said Conrad. “That gives you integration with the OS and really, really high performance and really fluid user experiences. But integrated with some HTML5 content, whose strong suit is uniform platform dynamics, and rapid turns on user interface development.”

See more arguments both for and against HTML5 vs. native apps after the bump!

THE MOBILE WEB PATH

• Single platform (the web)
• One app to build, launch and maintain
• All that’s needed for some companies

1. The first two weeks of an apps performance are most critical to establishing its credibility and visibility in app stores.
2. Cheap is always better, but consider in-app purchases to attract free and paying customers.
3. iOS apps over 20mb require WiFi, which hinders accessibility.  (One person even comments that, “app downloads go down more than 40% purely because a new version they uploaded was over this limit.”
4. It’s beneficial to create localized versions.

It’s a nice list but it certainly omits one key item: Testing!  Users have come to expect mobile applications that work near-flawlessly and anything else greatly impacts their perception – and review – of the app.  If the first two weeks of an apps launch are so critical then pre-launch testing can obviously go an extremely long way toward the success of your product.

Remember: you only get one chance to make a first impression.  This is even more critical in an industry where a Harris Interactive Study found that users prefer a good user experience over brand names.

If you need proof, check out our mobile app case studies and mobile app customer list!

We’d love to hear from you – what are the best and worst apps & reviews you’ve seen?

In fact, a few months ago we wrote about The Top Security Hacks of 2011, and referenced that the attacks on Playstation were estimated to have cost Sony $24 billion dollars– nearly 10x their revenue for the same period.

So here’s the point: Would you rather look back and say your company overshot and used too many systems for security testing?  Or get that nauseaus, sinking feeling in your gut when your CIO wakes you at 2:00am and says the company has spent too little?

That’s why– as the cornerstone of uTest’s showstopping announcement yesterday– we announced the launch of uTest Security Testing that leverages the talents of new and existing white hat security professionals within our crowdsourced community.  Since we now offer the first crowdsourced, real-world security testing in the world…there’s a new kid in town to join the collective effort to protect your company, and customers’, private data.

Moreover, we’ve joined forces with industry leader Veracode to provide seamless access to their complementary, cloud-based application security verification services.  Veracode has scalable, policy-driven application risk management programs that help identify and eradicate numerous vulnerabilities by leveraging best-in-class technologies from vulnerability scanning to penetration testing and static code analysis.

As a result, companies will have access to a cost-effective, powerful combination of automated (Veracode) and real-world (uTest) testing that mitigates security risks across the entire software development lifecycle.

We’re thrilled, honored and excited to be partnering with Veracode.  And we’re certain that our joint offering– as a complement to organizations’ in-house security testing– will offer tech executives peace-of-mind at a price with infinitely fewer zeroes than $24,000,000,000.

While I’m disappointed that Boston didn’t make their list for Top 10 markets for “Small Businesses Adopting Mobile” they do include some nice metrics.  I find it interesting that generating new sales only ranked 4^th among reasons SMB’s use mobile.

If you’re interested in a lot more detail we have white papers covering testing mobile and web apps.

Due to size constraints, the infographic has been posted below the fold…

A few of my favorite bullets:

• There are 4 billion mobile phones in use around the world. (For reference, there are just under 7 billion people in the world)
• Mobile internet usage is expected to surpass desktop internet usage in the next 3 years. (I expect the lines between mobile/desktop and cellular/wifi networks will also blur over the next few years)
• On average, Americans spend 2.7 hours per day socializing on their mobile device. (Ok, maybe this Toyota advertisement is ringing a bit too true here)

If you’re interested in testing mobile apps, check out our whitepaper dedicated to the subject.

Due to size constraints, the infographic has been posted below the fold…